Some NL100

I had a good start to the month, but some of the EV karma I've been cashing in on so far this year (in February I was pretty significantly above my AIE) has been catching up to me, and I plummeted down to almost even for the month. Because I needed to withdraw $2500 to cover upcoming moving expenses, leaving my bankroll well below where I'd like it, I decided to step down and play some NL100.

It was like whiffleball, and I had a nice 3BI win for +$100/hr. Running hot I guess, but some of the more fun hands:

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EP player limps, I iso to 4.5bb with Ad Qh, folds to him, he calls. Villain is a 24/10 who thinks postflop but overvalues hands, calls down light, and generally has FPS. Probably read a couple of poker books, but definitely not a great player at all. Were 200bb deep.

Flop comes Qs 9h Qd. Villain checks, I fire out 8bb, he calls. Turn: Kc. He checks and I make my biggest mistake of the night by betting 16bb. He c/r's to 42bb and I call. River he insta-bets 85bb and I turbo muck. He asked me what I called him with, says he'll tell if I do. I say no need to tell, you had TJ, he says no, I said 99 then, he goes wow how'd you guess.

The turn card sucked in that hand since pretty much every hand except QJ/QT that I'm beating just caught up. Should have checked behind to induce and then called river, instead I get trapped for a raise that I feel I have to call because I can stack him very often when I boat up. A lot of players would say to fold to the turn CR, but that's still a hand where most players lose a lot more.

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UTG+1 pot raise from a decent-enough-seeming 17/13, I call on his left with 8d 8s. A 45/21 donkey to my left calls and we see the flop 3-handed. Raiser is 108bb deep, I am 240bb, donkey has us both covered.

Flop comes Th 6s 5h, raiser checks and I bet 9.5bb into 12. Donkey calls, opener folds. Turn: 6c. I bet 19.5bb into 31, donkey calls. River 7s, I check, donkey checks and shows Ah 8h. So many people miss that turn value bet. I was calling anything he put in on the river.

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Nit opens for 3.5bb in EP, button calls, I call from the SB with Ts Th. Button is someone who picked up the "be aggressive" advice from someone somewhere and is a garden variety overaggro monkey. Flop comes 6h 7s Qh. I check, opener checks, btn bets 8bb. I call, the opener folds. Turn bricks, the 6c, I check, monkey bets 22bb, I minraise to 44bb, he turbomucks.

Nonstandard line but not without advantages. I don't think this guy has a hand; his betting reflex seems pronounced and he seems to be of the "keep betting until they fold" mentality. I certainly don't think he has a PP JJ+, he could have a set, a draw, or air. The raise was for value, gaining the max out of draws while making the air easier to play against than playing the check/guessing game on the river. A river bet is going to be another 50bb minimum and am I really calling and letting him own me with whatever QJ bs he's overvaluing? Better to end the hand here imo, rep the 77 or 56 or even the AQo while still getting money in as a favorite against hearts and 89.

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UTG raiser from a guy who's 31/13 over 40ish hands. We're 115bb deep. I call on the button with 8c 8h. BB calls also. Flop comes 2s 8h Kc. I don't know about you but that's just about the most beautiful set of 8's I've ever seen in my life. It's impossible to get a dryer board.

Villain insta-pots 11bb and I call (BB folds). Turn: 4d. Villain pumps 24bb more in. I call. River Ks, villain pops his last 77bb into 81, I call, villain shows A9o for the pure start-to-finish bluff. Oops.

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Unimaginative 12/9 nit opens from MP and the FPS dude from hand #1 calls. I call from the CO with 5h 7h. Button also calls, 4-way to a Qd 6d 3c flop.

Opener bets 10bb into 15.5 and FPS man floats. He floated like it was his job; over 500 hands (exactly) on him his fold-to-cbet rate is only 36%. Ideal spot here IMO even though I've just got a gutshot. I raise to $40 and everyone turbomucks.

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54/4 whale open-limps in MP, I iso from the btn to 4.5 with 3s 3d. He calls. Flop 6h Kh 5h, he checks, I bet 8bb just to end the hand if he has absolutely nothing, because even this guy will fold on this board with air. He calls. Turn is 4d, giving me an up-and-down I don't particularly care about, he checks, I bet 18bb into 26.5, he calls. River Jc, he checks, I bet 35bb into 62.5 and he turbo-mucked.

The play a lot of people miss there is the turn bet. Because villain could have ATC it's tempting just to see the hand to showdown with a weak-ass pair that has some value. That's not wrong, but I think it's better to build the pot, because most of the time the villain will have some weak-ass one-heart hand and is constitutionally incapable of folding anything they perceive as a draw for a "reasonable" bet. The downside is that it commits us to turning our hand into a bluff on the river to get rid of all the bullshit 5xXh, 6xXh, and mid-pp's-with-a-heart hands that have us beat but that he's unlikely to call that last street with. The turn bet makes the hand.

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AJo in UTG+1, but because of new players in LP seats we're 7-handed. I open to 3.5, 53/27 whale calls, everyone else gets out of the way. We're 94bb deep. Flop is J55 rainbow, I bet 6.5bb into 8.5, he calls. Turn: 4h. I bet 15 into 21.5, he calls. River 2s, I bet 40 into 51.5 (he has 66bb left), he hems and haws before finally making his "hero fold" stating that he has pocket 7's. Heh.

Super standard hand and any experienced player reading this will wonder why the hell I included it, but I see so many people butchering their hands in these spots that it's worth a mention. People have advice drilled into their heads so much saying "don't go broke with top pair, it's not a premium hand!" that they forget that there are plenty of spots where they should absolutely be going broke with TPTK, particularly when oop against an idiot calling station on a super dry board. Such maxims are totally worthless imo. You put someone on a hand based on your read and their behavior in the hand, and you act appropriately given what you think their reaction to your actions will be. Here my hand is almost always going to be good, I knew it, and so I went for three streets of value. EZ game.

200bb pots

I'm running amazingly badly in $800 pots so far this month. I've only had two; one was discussed in my last entry (lost to a 4-outer on the river with a set of 4's), and one from yesterday afternoon, where a maniac shows up at the table and within 15 hands I've seen him all-in preflop four times. The two times he was called he showed up with KQo both times.

So I pick up pocket queens in MP and raise. He 3bets from the SB, I 4bet to $85, he shoves, I instacall. He has As Ts and wouldn't you know it, there's an ace in the door. I fail to improve and the monkey ratholes with his profit. Thanks Martingale.

Thankfully, in part due to an overset for 100bb (omg that makes 2 in a row without an underset somewhere in between!) I still managed to churn out a $275 profit for the day.

The good news is that the same dude showed up at another one of my tables a little later and I was able to extract at least some partial revenge, particularly when I overbet $125 into $69 with 8d 9d on a 6h 5d 8h Kd 7d board (he called with Kh Qh) and on a hand where I 3bet an EP opener with QQ and he min-4bet out of the SB. I elected just to call this time and he insta-potted $84 on a 3s Tc 8c board. I called, the turn was the 9h, and he check-folded to my $131 bet (into $252).

I also managed to win in round 2 of the SSFR HU tourney, defeating Jason in an epic 2-1 come-from-behind that was peppered with suckouts from start to finish. Jason was either playing like a genius, was catching incredible cards, or had impeccable timing, or any combination available choosing from 2-3 of the above, because he was playing like an aggromonkey from hell but every last time I looked him up he had some kind of monster. Thankfully I sucked out on him for almost all of his chips with a straight draw + one over vs. his JJ overpair and eventually finished him off. One more win and I'm in the money baybee!

Emotional victory?

So I was cruising around at even last night when, at a deep table, I raise from EP with 44 and am 3bet small by a tight MP player. Relative stacks are 200bb and this guy's seemed very active, so I call. Flop comes 45J. I lead out for something like $42, he snapcalls. Turn is a Q, which I didn't like, but I lead out for $100 or so and snapcall when he insta-shoves. He shows AKs and the river spikes his ten. He said later that he put me on AJ and was just trying to push me off of it. Terrible play.

At the same time I catch 22 on a 237 flop as the preflop aggressor and bet into a guy from oop on the flop and turn, before the river makes the board 23457 with a possible flush. I desperately try to block for $88 or so and fold to an insta minraise.

With some other natural variance I'm down $800 very early.

Over the next 3 hours, I manage to build my way up, step by step, to the point where I'm only losing $160. Finally exhausted there, I call a halt to the night and felt good about it.

I think most people, even many experienced poker players, have no idea how much money gets passed back and forth in non-skill pots.