Weak evening session tonight, leaving a ton of money on the table mostly through two asinine mistakes. At least one superfish at 4/6 of my tables at all times, including an 86/6/1.4 that rebought several times.
The big mistake was a hand where I 3bet a weaktight raiser with J9s from the button (standard), he called, and I bet out on a 25J flop. He called, the turn was a 5, check check, and the river paired my 9. Up against this guy I was about 90% sure I was up against an overpair, but with 2pair bet for value, failing to notice that the 5 was paired below me on the board. Whoops. The weaktighty had KK, which sadly didn't surprise me at all. Poof to almost one full buyin.
The other big mistake was a hand where the SB raised 2 limpers from the SB, and I popped him with Ad Ks. Everyone folded to him and he called. The flop came Qs 9s 9d, he checks, I PSB a cbet, he calls. Turn 5s, check check, river 7s, he fires out $25 and I call with the 2nd nut flush. He had As Js. I should have known.
The only other play I question was one where a known weaktighty open-raised the button, the SB defended, and I defended in the BB with 9h 7h. The flop came 3c 8h Th giving me a straight draw. Check, check, and the BB bet out $3 into the $6 pot. The SB raised to $9, and I pushed all-in. The button folded, and the SB instacalled with As Ts, a $38 call into a $72 pot. The turn and river bricked and he dragged the pot with TPTK.
Villain's call of the shove was horrible in my opinion, and not just because I was bluffing. I think most players at NL50 fold to this shove even with TPTK, and some will fold most overpairs as well. Additionally, I think that most players in the SB's position will CR any flop that made any contact with that flop, hoping to catch the button in a weak cbet, so I may have pair outs in addition to my straight outs. I wouldn't even think about calling with AT in this situation.
I'm sure my shove there is +EV against a random villain, but still debating whether it's more +EV than a call. I put villain on some kind of pair hand most of the time here, and flat-calling allows me to rep a ton of scare cards that can come on the turn (essentially any overcard, club, or straight finisher. The only problem there is if the button decides to shove the flop instead of fold, the percentage of time that he's folding an overpair. Getting the button to potentially fold an overpair there (I would fold AA in the button's shoes there, probably 100% of the time) is very valuable, since the SB is going to imo be c/r-ing light in this spot light very often. And even when he shows up with a set, I do still have outs :)
After the hand the button wouldn't stop giving me shit about my "donk play". I told him "play a few 100k hands at this level and maybe you'll understand it." What's fun is the fact that so many of the self-styled experts at the level have a playbook so impossibly weak-tight. I had the bad luck of running into an unknown that was a complete donkey, but hey, I'll know better next time - he certainly got a note.
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